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THE LATEST ECONOMIC INFORMATION AND FORECASTS:
April 27, 2016 – IMF Report
Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere
"With the global economy still struggling, many countries in Latin America and the Caribbean are facing a harsher world than they did just a few years ago. The growth outlook is weaker in advanced and emerging economies alike, while the gradual slowdown and rebalancing of economic activity in China is likely to keep commodity prices lower for longer. Meanwhile, favorable external financial conditions over the past several years have become more volatile, and risks of a sudden tightening are on the rise. But the news isn't all bad. In the rest of the region—and particularly where policy frameworks have been strengthened over the past two decades—a relatively smooth adjustment continues. Given these broad contours, growth stories vary between the south and north.”
February 18, 2016 – OECD Update
Elusive global growth outlook requires urgent policy response
"The world economy is likely to expand no faster in 2016 than in 2015, its slowest pace in five years. Trade and investment are weak. Sluggish demand is leading to low inflation and inadequate wage and employment growth. The downgrade in the global outlook since the previous Economic Outlook in November 2015 is broadly based, spread across both advanced and major emerging economies, with the largest impacts expected in the United States, the euro area and economies reliant on commodity exports, like Brazil and Canada.”
September 11, 2015 – OECD Update
Emerging market slowdown and drop in trade clouding global outlook
“A further sharp downturn in emerging market economies and world trade has weakened global growth to around 2.9% this year – well below the long-run average – and is a source of uncertainty for near-term prospects, says the OECD. In its latest twice-yearly Economic Outlook, the OECD projects a gradual strengthening of global growth in 2016 and 2017 to an annual 3.3% and 3.6% respectively. But a clear pick-up in activity requires a smooth rebalancing of activity in China and more robust investment in advanced economies.”
March 28, 2013 – OECD Update
Global Economy is Improving but Europe Lags Behind
“Global economic activity is picking up, but the continuing crisis in the euro area is delaying a meaningful recovery, the OECD said in its latest Interim Economic Assessment. The Assessment, presented in Paris by Chief Economist Pier Carlo Padoan, says that the G7 economies are expected to grow at an annualized 2.4 per cent rate in the first quarter of 2013 and at a 1.8 percent rate in the second. It notes that financial markets are out-pacing real activity, which has been held back by weak business and consumer confidence, and highlights the risk that asset prices may rise beyond levels justified by fundamentals.”
January 23, 2013 – IMF Releases World Economic Outlook Update
Gradual Upturn in Global Growth During 2013
“Global growth is projected to increase during 2013, as the factors underlying soft global activity are expected to subside. However, this upturn is projected to be more gradual than in the October 2012 World Economic Outlook (WEO) projections. Policy actions have lowered acute crisis risks in the euro area and the United States. But in the euro area, the return to recovery after a protracted contraction is delayed. While Japan has slid into recession, stimulus is expected to boost growth in the near term. At the same time, policies have supported a modest growth pickup in some emerging market economies, although others continue to struggle with weak external demand and domestic bottlenecks. If crisis risks do not materialize and financial conditions continue to improve, global growth could be stronger than projected. However, downside risks remain significant, including renewed setbacks in the euro area and risks of excessive near-term fiscal consolidation in the United States. Policy action must urgently address these risks.”
January 16, 2013 – OECD Update
New OECD-WTO Analysis Highlights Changing Face of Global Trade
“Business competitiveness and export performance are increasingly tied to countries’ integration into global production chains and a willingness to open markets to wider imports, according to preliminary international trade data released today by the OECD and the WTO.” More.
December 06, 2012 – OECD Update
Growth, Skills and Education are the Keys to Inclusive Regional Development
“Improving education and skills is all-important. The case studies show that improving skills at the lower end - reducing school drop-out rates, and enhancing vocational training – are as productive as increasing university enrolment. In addition to these measures, the Asturias region in Spain and Durango in Mexico improved co-operation between the private sector and schools to ensure that students graduate with marketable skills.”
November 27, 2012 – OECD Update
Global Economy Facing Hesitant and Uneven Recovery
“The global economy is expected to make a hesitant and uneven recovery over the coming two years. Decisive policy action is needed to ensure that stalemate over fiscal policy in the United States and continuing euroarea instability do not plunge the world back into recession, according to the OECD’s latest Economic Outlook.”
November 2012 – OECD Releases Economic Outlook
“After five years of crisis, the global economy is weakening again. In this we are not facing a new pattern. Over the recent past, signs of emergence from the crisis have more than once given way to a renewed slowdown or even a double-dip recession in some countries. The risk of a new major contraction cannot be ruled out. A recession is ongoing in the euro area. The US economy is growing but performance remains below what was expected earlier this year. A slowdown has surfaced in many emerging market economies, partly reflecting the impact of the recession in Europe.”
October 9, 2012 - IMF Releases New World Economic Outlook
IMF Sees Heightened Risks Sapping Slower Global Recovery
“The International Monetary Fund (IMF) presented a gloomier picture of the global economy than a few months ago, saying prospects have deteriorated further and risks increased. Overall, the IMF’s forecast for global growth was marked down to 3.3 percent this year and a still sluggish 3.6 percent in 2013.
In its latest World Economic Outlook, unveiled in Tokyo ahead of the IMF-World Bank 2012 Annual Meetings, the IMF said advanced economies are projected to grow by 1.3 percent this year, compared with 1.6 percent last year and 3.0 percent in 2010, with public spending cutbacks and the still-weak financial system weighing on prospects…”
October 8, 2012 – OECD Update
OECD Composite Leading Indicators Point to Weakening Growth in Most Major Economies
“Composite leading indicators (CLIs), designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend, show that most major economies will continue to see weakening growth in the coming quarters. The CLIs for the United States and Japan continue to show signs of moderating growth while in Canada the CLI points to weak growth. In Germany, France, Italy and the Euro Area as a whole, the CLIs point to continued weakening growth. In China, the CLI points to soft growth, but tentative signs are emerging that the recent deterioration in the short-term outlook may have stabilised. In India and Russia, the CLIs continue to point to weak growth. The CLIs for the United Kingdom and Brazil continue to point to a pick-up in growth…”
September 6, 2012 – OECD Update
European Recession Slowing Global Economy
The global economy is slowing, with key European countries entering a recession that is now having an impact worldwide, the OECD said in its latest Interim Economic Assessment.
The Assessment, presented in Paris by Chief Economist Pier Carlo Padoan, says that the G7 economies are expected to grow at an annualized rate of just 0.3 percent in the third quarter of 2012 and 1.1 percent in the fourth. It warns that the continuing euro area crisis is dampening global confidence, weakening trade and employment and slowing economic growth for OECD and non-OECD countries alike (See the Chief Economist’s presentation).
“Our forecast shows that the economic outlook has weakened significantly since last spring,” Mr Padoan said. “The slowdown will persist if leaders fail to address the main cause of this deterioration, which is the continuing crisis in the euro area.”
The OECD projects that the euro area’s three largest economies – Germany, France and Italy – will shrink at an annualized rate of 1 percent on average during the third quarter and at 0.7 percent in the fourth.
Seen individually, the German economy is expected to contract at an annualized rate of 0.5 percent in the third quarter and at 0.8 percent in the fourth. The French outlook is slightly better, with contraction at an annualized rate of 0.4 percent in the third quarter followed by a slight pick-up in growth at 0.2 percent in the fourth. In Italy, the deep recession will continue with contraction at an annualized rate of 2.9 percent in the third quarter and 1.4 percent in the fourth.
The weak growth outlook is expected to push unemployment beyond today’s already high levels. “Resolving the euro area’s banking, fiscal and competitiveness problems is still the key to recovery,” Mr Padoan said.
While the United States is affected by the euro area slowdown, growth is nonetheless projected at an annualized rate of 2 percent in the third quarter and a 2.4 percent pace in the fourth. Canada is set to grow at a rate of 1.3 percent during the third quarter and 1.9 percent during the fourth. The Japanese economy is projected to contract at an annualized rate of 2.3 percent during the third quarter and hover around a zero growth rate in the fourth.
“A number of downside risks threaten the outlook, including the potential for further increases to already high oil prices, excessive fiscal contraction, notably in the United States in 2013, and further declines in consumer confidence linked to persistent unemployment,” Mr Padoan said.
May 22, 2012 – OECD Releases New Economic Outlook
Global Economy Recovering, but Major Risks Remain.
“The global economy is gradually gaining momentum, but the recovery is fragile, extremely uneven across different regions and could be derailed by the crisis in the euro area, according to the OECD’s latest Economic Outlook. ‘With slow growth, high unemployment and limited room for maneuver regarding macroeconomic policy space, structural reforms are the short-run remedy to spur growth and boost confidence’, OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurría said during the launch of the report in Paris. GDP growth across the OECD is projected to slow from an annual rate of 1.8% in 2011 to 1.6% in 2012, before recovering to 2.2% in 2013, according to the Outlook.”
April, 2012 - IMF Releases New World Economic Outlook
Growth Resuming, Dangers Remain.
“The global economy has gradually strengthened after a major setback during 2011. The threat of a sharp global slowdown eased with improved activity in the United States and better policies in the euro area. Weak recovery will likely resume in the major advanced economies, and activity will remain relatively solid in most emerging and developing economies. However, recent improvements are very fragile. Policymakers must calibrate policies to support growth in the near term and must implement fundamental changes to achieve healthy growth in the medium term. Chapters in this WEO update examines how policies directed at real estate markets can accelerate the improvement of household balance sheets and thus support otherwise anemic consumption. Further, it examines how swings in commodity prices affect commodity exporting economies, many of which have experienced a decade of good growth. With commodity prices unlikely to continue growing at the recent elevated pace, however, these economies may have to adapt their fiscal and other policies to lower potential output growth in the future.”
IMF Lowers Global Forecast
January 24, 2012 - World Economic Outlook Update - Global Recovery Stalls, Downside Risks Intensify:
- “The global recovery is threatened by intensifying strains in the euro area and fragilities elsewhere. Financial conditions have deteriorated, growth prospects have dimmed, and downside risks have escalated. Global output is projected to expand by 3¼ percent in 2012—a downward revision of about ¾ percentage point relative to the September 2011 World Economic Outlook (WEO). This is largely because the euro area economy is now expected to go into a mild recession in 2012 as a result of the rise in sovereign yields, the effects of bank deleveraging on the real economy, and the impact of additional fiscal consolidation.”
November 28, 2011 – OECD Issues New Economic Outlook for Major Countries and New Call for Urgent Action
“The global economy has deteriorated significantly since our previous Economic Outlook. Advanced
economies are slowing down and the euro area appears to be in a mild recession. Concerns about
sovereign debt sustainability in the European monetary union are becoming increasingly widespread.
Recent contagion to countries thought to have relatively solid public finances could massively escalate
economic disruption if not addressed. Unemployment remains very high in many OECD economies and,
ominously, long-term unemployment is becoming increasingly common. Emerging economies are still
growing at a healthy pace, but their growth rates are also moderating. In these countries falls in
commodity prices and the slower global growth have started to mitigate inflationary pressures. More
recently, international trade growth has weakened significantly. Contrary to what was expected earlier
this year, the global economy is not out of the woods.”
October 31, 2011 - OECD Weighs in on the Euro and US Financial Crises
" Uncertainties regarding the short-term economic outlook have risen dramatically in recent months. A number of events, notably related to the euro area debt crisis and fiscal policy in the United States, are likely to dominate economic developments in the coming two years. In an “events-free” scenario and in the absence of comprehensive policy action to resolve current problems, real GDP is projected to grow by about 3.9% this year, 3.8% in 2012 and 4.6% in 2013 on average in G20 countries.1 This average masks a wide divergence among country groupings, and emerging-market economies are much more buoyant, despite some softening. In the euro area, a marked slowdown with patches of mild negative growth is likely. Growth is also projected to remain weak in the United States, with a gradual pick-up from 2012 towards the end of the projection period. Unemployment is set to remain high in many advanced countries.”
LATEST ECONOMIC INFORMATION AND FORECASTS FROM THE ORGANIZATION FOR ECONOMIC COOPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT (OECD)
“8/09/2011 - Economic recovery appears to have come close to a halt in the major industrialised economies, with falling household and business confidence affecting both world trade and employment, according to new analysis from the OECD. Growth remains strong in most emerging economies, albeit at a more moderate pace.
“Growth is turning out to be much slower than we thought three months ago, and the risk of hitting patches of negative growth going forward has gone up,” OECD Chief Economist Pier Carlo Padoan said during a presentation of the OECD’s latest Interim Economic Assessment.
Economic growth in the G7 economies excluding Japan will remain at an annualised rate of less than 1% in the second half of 2011.
The debate over fiscal policy in the United States, the sovereign debt crisis in some countries of the euro area and the fact that governments have fewer options to boost growth are driving both business and consumer confidence downward. The extent of bank deleveraging, due to the impact of regulatory changes, may also have been underestimated.
Earlier improvements in the labour market are now fading, hiring intentions are softening and there are greater risks that high unemployment could become entrenched.
On the upside, a number of OECD countries are taking serious fiscal and structural reform measures, which should boost confidence. President Obama's announcement later today is expected to provide a boost to job recovery in the United States.
Japanese growth is expected to be buoyed by the ongoing reconstruction efforts following the earthquake and tsunami. Inflation may have peaked in emerging markets, which will allow for some policy easing. Investment levels in many OECD countries remain well below historical averages, offering the possibility for renewed corporate spending in the coming months if uncertainty abates.
“The policy imperative is to rebuild confidence,” Mr. Padoan said.
The OECD recommends that central banks keep policy rates at present levels, and barring signs of recovery, consider lowering rates when there is scope.
Other monetary policy responses to the crisis could include further central bank interventions in securities markets, strong commitments to keeping interest rates low over an extended period and the withdrawal of monetary tightening in emerging economies.
On the fiscal side, the OECD says that to rebuild confidence it is essential that countries take credible steps to curtail debt. Medium-term consolidation plans, however, must be accompanied by growth-friendly structural reforms. Credible fiscal frameworks may create room for short term fiscal stimulus if needed. The governance of the euro area in economic and fiscal matters must be improved. The process of capitalisation of banks should be accelerated, and support to their short-term funding needs should be addressed.”
OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2011 Issue 1 - No. 89 - © OECD 2011
Annex Table 1. Real GDP
Percentage change from previous year
LATEST ECONOMIC DATA FROM THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND (IMF)
IMF – World Economic Outlook Update
“Activity is slowing down temporarily, and the downside risks have increased again. The global expansion remains unbalanced. Growth in many advanced economies is still weak, considering the depth of the recession. In addition, the mild slowdown in the second quarter of 2011 is not reassuring. Growth in most emerging and developing economies continues to be strong. Overall, the global economy expanded at an annualized rate of 4.3 percent…. However, greater-than-anticipated weakness in U.S. activity and renewed financial volatility from concerns about the depth of fiscal challenges in the euro area periphery pose greater risks.”